Putin casts a shadow over Orbán in high-stakes election

Until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hungary’s general election campaign was dominated by such ruling party preoccupations as “traditional values” and protecting children from “ LGBT propaganda ”.

- Flora Garamvolgyi

Neither Russia nor Ukraine featured in the slogans of Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party or the opposition parties, which have united to dislodge him.

But the war, the ensuing refugee exodus and the reshaping of Europe’s geopolitical calculations have dramatically altered the political context ahead of Hungary’s 3 April vote.

Warmly received at the Kremlin just three weeks before the invasion, Orbán has had to condemn it, publicly distance himself from a decade-long friendship with Vladimir Putin and join Hungary’s EU partners in imposing punitive sanctions on Russia.

Overt hostility to refugees has been a defining issue of Orbán’s rule, but on this too, he has had to fall into line with the EU by granting visa-free admission to those fleeing Russia’s bombs. More than 200,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in Hungary.

The combined opposition now characterise Orb án as Putin’s servant and his ties with Russia as a national security threat. Those ties have been so close that Orbán’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, received a Russian Order of Friendship medal from Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, as recently as December.

“Orb án and Putin or the west and Europe – these are the stakes. A choice between the dark or the good side of history,” Péter Marki-Zay, the joint opposition’s prime ministerial candidate, wrote on social media.

Fidesz remains ahead in opinion polls. According to a mid-March poll from Nezopont, which is close to the ruling party, 49% of voters would choose Fidesz against 41% for the united opposition. However, a later survey suggested its lead had narrowed to three points.