The current chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has a much better chance of challenging Keir Starmer's Labour than the incumbent prime minister, according to the poll by Opinium shared exclusively with the Guardian.
The research found the party would be 60 seats worse off under Johnson compared with Sunak.
However, other potential leadership rivals - the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and the levelling up secretary, Michael Gove - fared worse than Johnson, with the former estimated to lose 40 more seats and the latter 70 seats more.
The pollster found 39% of people asked intended to vote Labour at the next election, seven points ahead of the Conservatives on 32%.
But when Johnson's name was added to the voting intention question, Tory support dipped below 30%, and Labour's lead increased from seven to 12 points.
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Denne historien er fra December 28, 2021-utgaven av The Guardian.
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Borthwick claims players were unfit for start of series
Steve Borthwick has claimed his England players were not fit enough for Test rugby when they began their autumn internationals after Saturday's defeat by South Africa extended their dismal losing run.
Exciting times ahead' Carsley hails new generation as he hands over to Tuchel
Lee Carsley predicted that competition for places in Thomas Tuchel's first squad will be fiercer than ever, after his stint as England's interim head coach ended with a 5-0 thrashing of the Republic of Ireland in the Nations League.
Kane has been the defining player of a successful era, but this thing has run its course
Below the hum of the crowd every time Kane took the ball, he was rearranging his legs like a pantomime horse
Harwood-Bellis starts party as Carsley signs off with promotion
It was an England salvo of devastating power, three goals in five minutes early in the second half and it did more than reframe an occasion that had been flat and forgettable until then.
'I saw my name on the Euros list. There was shock then happiness'
Ayoze Pérez hopes to make history for Spain in Tenerife tonight after goal rush since leaving England for La Liga
Direct Doak convinces Clarke he is the present and future
Scotland's teenage forward set to keep his spot against Poland after terrorising Gvardiol in win over Croatia
Beard vents over penalty error as Everton edge derby
An exasperated Matt Beard claimed the match officials had cost his Liverpool team the Merseyside derby, after a controversial penalty enabled Everton to claim their first win of the Women's Super League season and move off the bottom of the table.
Clever Slegers impresses but Arsenal cannot rush appointment
Watching Arsenal coast to victory at Tottenham on Saturday, you could have been forgiven for forgetting that they are without a permanent manager.
Beaten, bruised England are not in crisis mode yet
Defeat by South Africa was to be expected but the Six Nations looms as kill or cure for Borthwick's project
Wright treble condemns Wales to record 11th straight defeat
Never go back. Warren Gatland must wonder if he should have heeded that apparently universal truth. After this defeat the New Zealander has overseen the longest ever run of Wales losses: 11 and counting.
