The prospective contests could hardly have worse timing from the government’s point of view, after a disastrous set of local elections and a Labour lead over the Conservatives in the opinion polls usually into double figures.
What's up for grabs?
Seats in the House of Lords for three MPs particularly close to Mr Johnson: Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams and Alok Sharma, who've been waiting for their elevation since Johnson quit last year, but his resignation honours have been delayed (apparently some nominations are especially problematic). If they do move to the Lords, they will create vacancies in Mid Bedfordshire, Selby and Ainsty (in North Yorkshire) and Reading West.
Could the Tories hold the seats?
Holding all three looks impossible given the state of public opinion generally and what can be gleaned from the local elections. Reading West looks like a nailed-on Labour gain, with only a 4 per cent swing (4 voters in 100 changing their vote) needed to win, set against a current national swing to Labour since the 2019 general election of around 11 per cent.
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