RUSSIA POISED TO ATTACK UKRAINE AS MILITARY BUILD-UP CONTINUES

There's little doubt that the military build-up would allow for a large-scale attack on Ukraine, should Putin decide to make such a move in the New Year, but Western nations are puzzled by the Kremlin's intentions.

- JOHN DOBSON

American intelligence has revealed a huge build-up more than 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, which they believe are possible preparations by Moscow to invade their neighbour from multiple locations as early as January next year. Airstrikes, artillery and armour attacks involving about 100 battalion tactical groups would quickly be followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighbouring Belarus, according to the Ukrainian head of defence intelligence. Brig Gen Dudanov told the Military Times last week that Russia's large scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved that they could drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once. There are also reports that Moscow has called up tens of thousands of reservists on a scale unprecedented in post-Soviet times. In Kiev's view, the anticipated attack by Russia would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea and supported the independence of the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass, a war which so far has seen more than 14,000 Ukrainians killed.

President Putin has a history of brinkmanship and earlier build-ups on Ukraine's border have come to nothing. But this time developments appear to be more threatening, even though in a speech last week, Putin said that his goal was to keep the US and its allies on edge. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that Moscow is plotting a coup in Ukraine on 1 December, a claim swiftly denied by Moscow. Zelenskiy later confirmed that his troops were in full control of the country's borders and stood ready for any escalation by Vladimir Putin.