Problem … Solution … Problem

India’s population will start to collapse in two decades. It’s a matter of celebration – and concern

- Rohit.Saran

More babies were born in India in 2003 than any year before and after. Every year since then the number of live births has been falling consistently. Roughly 7 lakh fewer babies would have been born in 2021 than were born in 2003 – that’s 1,900 less kids born every day. The country witnessed another milestone in 2005. Fertility rate (average number of children born to a woman) fell below 3 that year. By 2019, that rate had slipped to 2 – well below the world average.

All these indicators point in the same direction – Indian family size is shrinking faster than most people think. It took only 14 years for the fertility rate to fall by 50% (from 3 to 2) in India, whereas in Bangladesh – globally acclaimed for birth control – a similar fall took 17 years.

Lots to celebrate: The biggest force driving the fall in births is an increase in women’s control over their lives. Percentage of women marrying before the age of 18 has fallen by half in the past 15 years. Teenage pregnancies have more than halved and use of condoms has nearly doubled since 2005-06. Most significantly, women who say they participate in key family decisions have shot up from 37% to 89% in the past decade and a half.