THE WEAPONIZATION OF THE DOLLAR

Nations around the world are trying to eliminate or reduce their dependence on the dollar out of fear that the U.S. could use Russia-style sanctions against them if the U.S. disapproves of their conduct. Even nations around the world may accelerate their dumping of Treasury securities and their flight from the U.S. dollar. This would increase interest rates in the U.S. and hurt everyone. James Rickards says that none of the sanctions would be effective or even possible without the use of the dollar and the dollar payments system.

- James Rickards

AImost 10 years ago, I sat in a secure conference room at the Pentagon and explained to a group of U.S. national security officials from the military, CIA, Treasury and other agencies that the overuse of the U.S. dollar in financial warfare would eventually drive countries away from using dollars in international transactions for fear that they could become the next target of U.S. displeasure.

I said to the military and intelligence community, "I don't think other countries can destroy the dollar, but we can do it ourselves. We are our own worst enemy."

We, of course, meaning the United States. We're destroying the dollar with the sanctions (and through other misguided policies). The U.S. is doing more to destroy the dollar than our enemies.

Some took note, some ignored the warning and one Treasury official slammed the table and said, "The dollar has been the global reserve currency, it is the global reserve currency now and it always will be the global reserve currency!"

Well, a lot has changed over the past 10 years and especially over the past two years.

The More Things Change...

But still many government officials and senior intelligence community members are stuck in this type of thinking. Earlier this year, I taught a seminar at the U.S. Army War College on financial warfare. I explained that U.S. financial sanctions would not have a material impact on Russia, that Russia would not change its behavior in Ukraine based on the sanctions and that the U.S. would suffer more from its own sanctions than Russia because adversaries and neutral countries would create alternative payment platforms that did not use dollars.

I naturally encountered skepticism from the class but events of the past year have proved my forecast in every respect. 

I Told You So