Up until 1697, human beings believed all swans to be white. But then some Dutch explorers spotted a few black swans in Western Australia and, suddenly, human beings woke up to the reality of the existence of black swans. When we come to think of it, statistically, all it takes is the sighting of one black swan to prove that black swans do exist.
Since then, the term 'black swan theory' came to be used as a metaphor for describing an occurrence that is rare and unpredictable but has a catastrophic impact.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularised this theory in his famous book The Black Swan. According to Taleb, to be classified as a black swan event, it should meet the following three criteria: It should be an outlier, lying outside the realm of the regular, expected happenings.
It should lead to an extreme impact. Despite its outlier status, in hindsight, it's explained to be an event that could have been predicted.
Both the world wars, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the 2008 financial crisis are some examples of black swan events that fit into all the three attributes described above. The recent pandemic is not considered to be one by researchers as they found that there is a one per cent probability of pandemics of some intensity occurring, making them not that rare after all.
Such black swan incidents show that we cannot assume the absence of evidence to be equal to the evidence of absence. This theory has been very beautifully put into words by Donald Rumsfeld in the following quote:
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
Denne historien er fra February 2023-utgaven av Life Positive.
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Denne historien er fra February 2023-utgaven av Life Positive.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
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Miracles of Mount Maunganui
A hike to Mount Maunganui in New Zealand filled Rashi Bunny with a sense of awe and wonder equivalent to witnessing the glory of the Divine Himself
Navigating Your 20s: A Simple Guide
By embracing the tumultuous journey through her 20s, Abhilasha Srivastava learnt to triumph over the challenges encountered and carve the path for her future
Inducing Sweet Slumber
As we are well aware, lack of sound sleep can give rise to physical and mental problems. To ensure a good night's rest, you could follow the suggestions given by Jamuna Rangachari in the next few pages
Days for the Divine
Guided by her mentor Megha Bajaj, Meghana Acharya sends positive vibes into the Universe to ensure the well-being and success of others
Voices from the beyond
Near-Death Experiences (NDES) have long fascinated humanity-a glimpse beyond the veil, a sneak peek into the unknown that pulsates with wonders, mysteries and intrigue. Jamuna Rangachari takes us through the narrations of a few who went to the other side and returned to share in great detail what they experienced and how it transformed them
All for the best
An academic disaster turned opportunity led Rajeev Hallur to understand the jigsaw puzzle of life, initially incomprehensible to most of us
Many Lives, One Master
Dr Bijal Maroo probes into the enigmatic charisma of Swami Omkaranandaji to discover the story behind his uncanny healing powers
Modern art with a tribal touch
Gautam Bharati and Avani Jain, based in Dungarpur, Rajasthan saw the incredible ability and passion of tribals for arts and decided to do something about it.
Laugh your way to health
Rupa Bannur, a former IT professional turned holistic health coach from Bangalore began turning to laughter yoga in 2001 after she faced profound loss of precious family members.
Healing Hands
When Rupesh Budh Ahmedabad from was 15 years of age, he learnt meditation from his martial arts (Karate) teacher. His teacher also introduced him to Reiki as a healing modality that can cure with just a touch. He told him that advanced Reiki practitioners can cure even from a distance without touching.