IT ISN'T AN OPEN AND SHUT CASE

With the assembly election in Chhattisgarh just around two months away, there has been a noticeable shift in how the contest is being perceived. With each passing day, political observers are convinced that it won’t be a one-sided contest like in 2018—when the ruling Congress unequivocally trumped the BJP.

- Rahul Noronha

Instead, they are anticipating a return to the 2003, 2008 and 2013 polls that went down to the wire. Most importantly, below the broad bipolarity at the top that defines Chhattisgarh politics, there are smaller players who make the base rather more mobile than it appears. The third front, which secured an impressive 12 per cent of the vote share in 2018, might go back to its usual share of 5-7 per cent. In 2018, the Congress had won its most comprehensive electoral victory in the state, getting 68 out of 90 seats. In the past five years, the party has also won every bypoll here, taking its tally to 71. The BJP won a mere 15 seats in 2018 and its numbers have since shrunk to 14. But it retains a strong state organisation, and even a slight rebalancing in local voting patterns owing to new players could change the overall picture.