After each general election, a group of political scientists conduct a survey of the views, values and voting behaviour of a large sample of voters. It's known as the New Zealand Election Survey, or NZES. Because their sample group is so large - usually about 3000 people - you can examine subsets of voters with some confidence that the data has statistical significance. So we can look at the supporters of different political parties and ask what they believe and who they are.
Under first past the post, New Zealand had swing electorates: a handful of strategic seats the major parties battled over, and these determined the outcome of the election. Under MMP, we have strategic constituencies: demographic groups that can swing from one party to another. In 2023, the so-called median voter - midway between Labour and National - was a woman with a young family who had voted for Jacinda Ardern in 2017 and 2020 but had since drifted towards National. Many of the major party policies and messages were pitched at this group.
But there's another powerful voice in New Zealand politics: New Zealand First voters. In 10 MMP elections since 1996, Winston Peters has emerged with the ability to determine the government in three - and, depending on special votes and the Port Waikato by-election result - potentially a fourth. He has been deputy prime minister twice and acting prime minister while Ardern was on maternity leave. He's been treasurer once, foreign minister twice, and reportedly would like to be treasurer again in Christopher Luxon's government.
The other enduring parties in our political system are Act and the Greens. They've done stints on the periphery of Labour and National governments: the Greens' James Shaw has been climate change minister for six years; former Act leader Rodney Hide was local government minister under John Key. But they've never had a seat at the top table; never helped run the zoo.
Denne historien er fra November 04-10 2023-utgaven av New Zealand Listener.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent ? Logg på
Denne historien er fra November 04-10 2023-utgaven av New Zealand Listener.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
First-world problem
Harrowing tales of migrants attempting to enter the US highlight the political failure to fully tackle the problem.
Applying intelligence to AI
I call it the 'Terminator Effect', based on the premise that thinking machines took over the world.
Nazism rears its head
Smirky Höcke, with his penchant for waving with a suspiciously straight elbow and an open palm, won't get to be boss of either state.
Staying ahead of the game
Will the brave new world of bipartisanship that seems to be on offer with an Infrastructure Commission come to fruition?
Grasping the nettle
Broccoli is horrible. It smells, when being cooked, like cat pee.
Hangry? Eat breakfast
People who don't break their fast first thing in the morning report the least life satisfaction.
Chemical reaction
Nitrates in processed meats are well known to cause harm, but consumed from plant sources, their effect is quite different.
Me and my guitar
Australian guitarist Karin Schaupp sticks to the familiar for her Dunedin concerts.
Time is on my side
Age does not weary some of our much-loved musicians but what keeps them on the road?
The kids are not alright
Nuanced account details how China's blessed generation has been replaced by one consumed by fear and hopelessness.
