BETTER DEAD THAN RED

War clouds may be gathering, but opinion polls suggest that the Taiwanese prefer democracy and are not afraid of Chinese military drills

- NAMRATA BIJI AHUJA/Taipei

Taipei is usually peaceful. Only an occasional horn or siren cuts through the gentle winds in the capital of Taiwan. Recently, though, something happened in the high skies and the deep blue ocean around it that has caught the attention of the militaries of several countries. On August 2, US House speaker Nancy Pelosi landed on the island and brought with her a political storm. Despite stern warnings by China, Pelosi flew in and met President Tsai Ing-wen. As soon as she left, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) fired multiple ballistic missiles, reportedly 16 of them, into the waters surrounding Taiwan as part of a series of military drills. Taiwan said 11 missiles were fired, Japan observed nine. Japan said five of the missiles landed in its exclusive economic zone, which has contiguous waters with Taiwan.

But, the bigger question being asked by the militaries is: Were there more missiles and, if so, where did they go?

Either the radar systems missed them or they were untraceable. The latter possibility is a matter of concern in missile warfare. A third possibility is that a few missiles failed immediately after China launched them. The discrepancy in the numbers can be a worry—especially for China—at a time when Russian missiles in Ukraine failed to hit targets and even malfunctioned, making the US sit up and take notice.

This is a scenario Xi Jinping would not want repeated after the Pelosi visit. Speculation is already on, and militaries of other countries are also talking about it in closed circles. Officially, there is no word from Taiwan, Japan or China.