Falling fertility rate points to eventual decline in India's population

The fertility rate was slightly above the replacement level of 2.1, which is the rate at which the population stabilises over time.

Data from the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) shows that the total fertility rate in the country remained at 2.2 in 2015-16—the same as it was in 2011.

However, it declined to 2, below the replacement level, in 2019-21. This indicates that the country's population will eventually decline. Yet, projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) suggest that India's population will not fall before 2062, even though the growth rate will be below one per cent a year from 2025 onwards.

Despite UN DESA's projection of India's population growth rate declining to 0.9 per cent in 2025, it would still result in an addition of 13.1 million people that year. This is based on India's population, which stood at 1.46 billion as of December 16 (according to Worldometer, which put China's population at 1.42 billion).

This increase would be significantly lower than the 18.2 million people added annually, on average, during the 2001-2011 decade. Even so, in 2025, India would still add around half of Australia's population, which shows stood at 26.8 million as of December 16, 2024.

If this is the case, why are prominent figures urging people to have more children?

There are two reasons for this.

One: Since India's TFR fell below the replacement level in 2019-21, there are concerns that the country could soon grow old, replacing its current demographic dividend.