Geopolitical challenges for next govt

When our gaze shifts from the domestic to the external after the polls, the challenges would have multiplied

- BINAY SINHA

An excruciatingly extended general election process, stretching from April 1 to June 1, 2024, inevitably turns the national gaze from the external world to the unfolding domestic political drama. The next government, which shall take office on June 4, will face an international landscape that would have changed since April 1. What would that world look like? The US would have become a more diminished power. Its domestic politics has become more fragmented and more polarised than before. The US stand on the Israel-Hamas war has divided American society to a degree not seen since the Vietnam War. President Joe Biden is neither able to restrain Israel nor deny military and economic support to it. In Europe, Russia is making important gains in its war against Ukraine with the US caught in a serious dilemma it does not want an escalation that demands direct intervention by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), but Ukraine losing the war, or settling for an unequal peace, would deliver a grievous blow to American credibility. This is compounded by the uncertainty over whether Mr Biden would be re-elected in the November presidential election or the nightmare of a Trump presidency will return.

The US has lowered the pitch of its confrontation with China in the Indo-Pacific region. It has launched a major diplomatic effort to expand engagement with China, including through the revival of several bilateral consultative mechanisms, which had lain dormant in the past couple of years.