The East wind blows harder

The global power balance is shifting as China and Russia assert dominance in technology and diplomacy

- TN NINAN

 I'n the escalating contest between the West and the Rest, it is now clear that the West, while still packing the more powerful punch, is weakening. In the Asia-Pacific, the US Navy's stance has shifted from dominance to deterrence. In the economic sphere too, Washington has switched from being on the offensive (technology bans, trade restrictions and financial sanctions) to playing defence (putting up a tariff wall around the US market). And Western support for Ukraine has not stopped Russia. Mao had declared somewhat ahead of time that the East wind prevails over the West wind. That may now be beginning to happen.

For years, Western analysts and journalists misread both China and Russia. The latter was portrayed as economically vulnerable and Vladimir Putin as politically challengeable, perhaps even terminally ill. China's collapse has been forecast for decades; more recently, it has been seen as beleaguered. Yet Russia has withstood Western sanctions unexpectedly well, it has gained the upper hand in Ukraine, and Mr Putin has been elected to a fresh term in office. China, meanwhile, remains the fastest-growing among economies with comparable income levels.

The steep tariffs that the US has announced recently on some Chinese products do not signal a full-scale trade war since they target items that China does not sell much in the US. So the signalling may be primarily to President Joe Biden's domestic political base. Regardless, China remains the dominant producer of many of the targeted products, and can find other markets. It is US importers who may have no alternative sources of supply for some items.

China could also route supplies through factories in third countries. Meanwhile, American consumers will pay through inflation.

Such defensive ploys (the flip side of a subsidyladen policy to revive American manufacturing) ILLUSIKATIUN. DINAI SINПA contrast with the offensive thrust of earlier moves.