On election eve in the United States, the presidential race is deadlocked.
The polls are exceptionally close across the country and in all the swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the industrial Midwest; Nevada and Arizona in the West; and Georgia and North Carolina in the South.
The final New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris leading by a very small margin or tied with Republican former President Donald Trump in all the swing states. The exception is Arizona, where Trump leads by a few percentage points.
While there is no clear favorite to win, there are several critical factors that will drive voters' decisions on Election Day.
Republicans turning against Trump
Trump's favourability is stuck around 43 per cent in nationwide polling. In the past two presidential elections, he fell short of taking 50 per cent of the national popular vote. As president, he never achieved over 50 per cent favourability. And he has never topped 50 per cent since leaving office.
This means he has hit a ceiling in his support and is highly unlikely to win the national popular vote on Tuesday.
This also reflects what happened to Trump in the Republican primaries to win the nomination. He dominated the field, defeating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and several others. But in most of those primaries, 15-20 per cent of Republican voters did not vote for Trump.
Where will these Republican voters ultimately land on Tuesday? Probably half want to vote Republican and will go with Trump. Others will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Harris and will simply not vote for president. Others will switch their support to Harris.
Denne historien er fra November 05, 2024-utgaven av Business Standard.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent ? Logg på
Denne historien er fra November 05, 2024-utgaven av Business Standard.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
False solutions for climate change
As the ghastly impacts of climate change become more visible in our everyday lives, it is hard to shake off the feeling that one must step up and do something constructive.
Expats to residents, Delhi's air is driving people out
Embassies have stepped up efforts to deal with the situation; WFH option has residents temporarily relocating to their hometowns
Making sense of census
For all marketing professionals working in large companies, the population census of India is a treasure trove of information.
MONEY CAN BUY YOU STARS
What's behind West Asia's multi-billion charm offensive to become a destination for all kinds of sports stars?
Ensure low tracking error, alignment with risk appetite
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a sharp rise in subscriptions in October, with net investments totalling ₹13,441 crore, compared to ₹381 crore in the previous month, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Strong order book to stand BEL in good stead
Brokerages mostly positive on the stock
Strong Q2, growth outlook drive gains for Info Edge
The stock of online classified major Info Edge (India) was up over 6 per cent on Friday on expectations of demand improvement for Indian IT companies.
Regulator nod to Roshni Nadar to acquire majority stake in HCLTech
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Friday gave nod to Roshni Nadar to acquire majority shareholding from her father Shiv Nadar, founder of HCL Group, in two promoter group companies.
Green energy stocks fail to benefit from selloff in Adani Green
Six of the eight stocks operating in the green energy space declined on Friday, failing to benefit from the rout in Adani Green Energy's decline over the last two sessions.
NTPC Green Energy IPO booked 2.40x on Day 3
The initial public offering (IPO) of NTPC Green Energy Ltd, the renewable energy arm of NTPC, was subscribed 2.40 times on the closing day of the share sale on Friday.
