Distrust the bellicose prophets of doom with their bad history

THERE is an air of the Old Testament prophets over the latest dire military and strategic warnings in Britain and America about the need to prepare for war with Russia and China by 2027.

- Robert Fox

The new chief of the British Army, General Sir Roly Walker, told his London conference this week that his troops need to double their “lethality”, the ability to kill and destroy the enemy, within three years and triple it by 2030. They have to be ready for war with Russia in 2027 — and they fall short of what is required now, in terms of innovative tactics and weaponry.

Prophecy is a mug’s game in preparing for what is needed for security and resil ience — key components of national defence and wellbeing — right now. We are in what the Norwegians, who sit on a strategic and vulnerable border with Russia, call a state of “near war”. As the war in Ukraine worsens, and heads towards a million casualties by the end of the year, we get more mentions across the media of the period leading up to the great wars of the 20th century.

Are we at 1936 or 1928, or is this more like “the guns of August”, the huge mobilisation of forces in the summer of 1914 leading the Great War of 1914-18, I am asked frequently. More urgent of late is the simple question: are we headed for World War III ?