If Keir Starmer wins a historic majority, will he be able to handle the hope?

A CENTURY ago, in the general election of October 1924, Stanley Baldwin achieved a majority of 210 for the Conservatives; modestly describing the landslide as "a magnificent opportunity for service".

- Matthew d'Ancona

Though it is true that the National Government formed after the October 1931 election boasted a governing majority of no less than 492, this coalition aggregate included seats held by Ramsay MacDonald's National Labour, the Conservatives and some Liberals. Baldwin holds the undisputed modern record for a single party victory. And, on July 4, that record could fall to Sir Keir Starmer.

This, at any rate, is what MRP polls unambiguously suggest. These mega-surveys are more accurate because they involve very large samples of respondents and take account of different demographic groups rather than assuming a uniform national swing (MRP, if you're interested, stands for "multilevel regression and post-stratification").

On Saturday, a Survation poll of this kind - the first to be conducted since Nigel Farage's return to the fray - suggested that Labour is heading for a majority of 262, leaving the Tories with a paltry 72 seats.

Nor is this the first time during the campaign that such surveys have delivered such results. On May 31, an Electoral Calculus poll predicted a Starmer majority of 336, and again the Conservative Party reduced to 72. On June 4, Survation found that Labour was on course for a majority of 324, leaving the Tories with only 71 seats.