Ominous signs for Tories but 2024 different in many ways

CAN the Conservatives avoid a landslide defeat? Time is running out. The party appears to be staring into the political abyss.

- Keiran Pedley

Labour’s average poll lead this month stands at 19 points, with recent seat projections suggesting that the Conservatives could be heading for a 1997-style landslide defeat — or worse.

In January 1997, under Tony Blair’s leadership, Labour averaged a similar 21-point lead. The signs are ominous for the Conservatives. Yet in many ways, the world of 2024 is very different to 1997. If Rishi Sunak does decide to call the next election in the second half of the year, he will have more time to change his party’s fortunes than John Major did in January 1997.

In five of the last 10 elections there have been shifts of 10 points or more from polls a year out to the election result. Margaret Thatcher turned a sixpoint deficit a year out into an 11-point win in 1987. David Cameron looked on course for a majority until a change in public sentiment meant he had to settle for leading a coalition government. Things can change. Perhaps not enough to save the Conservatives but enough to materially affect the type of Labour government we get.