Subdued crude prices: H2 inflation outlook now stable
Financial Express Mumbai|November 27, 2023
THE UPSIDE RISK to inflation from crude oil prices that persisted till early October seems to have ebbed. Analysts have revised estimates of inflation now to be around 5.4% for the remaining months of FY24.
ARUNIMA BHARADWAJ
Subdued crude prices: H2 inflation outlook now stable
  • INDIAN CRUDE BASKET SEEN AT $85-$90/BARREL TILL YEAR-END

Crude prices are expected to remain subdued amid concerns of sluggish demand from top importers and tightening global supply at the same time. The prices, which had touched a peak of $97 a barrel in late September and then remained volatile on the back of conflict in Israel, have now crawled back to their earlier levels of $75-$80 a barrel.

"The CPI inflation print in India is showing a steady decline from 6.8% in August to 5.02% in September to 4.87% in October. Brent crude which touched a high of $96 in September is now around $82," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. "Even if the OPEC goes for production cuts the increase is unlikely to be large given the sluggish global growth and the consequent poor demand. Inflation in India will be manageable."

Analysts see the price of Indian crude oil basket at $80-$95 a barrel for the remaining months of FY24 as restricted supply is being balanced by lower demand from the US and China, the top two crude consumers.

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