Policymakers in New Delhi are keeping a close watch on Sunday's general elections in Bangladesh in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will face one of her toughest tests despite the virtual absence of the main opposition party.
Hasina, 76, is seen as one of India's strongest strategic partners in a neighbourhood that has witnessed several political upheavals in the past year amid China's persisting efforts to project its influence in the region. She has been in power for 15 consecutive years to become Bangladesh's longest-serving leader.
The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by ailing former premier Khaleda Zia, has decided to boycott the elections on January 7, just as it did in 2014, after the ruling Awami League rejected its demand to hold the polls under a caretaker government. However, this has not paved the way for walkover by Hasina, who is eyeing an unprecedented fourth term.
Many lawmakers and ministers of the Awami League are expected to be affected by an anti-incumbency wave, especially on the back of a recent economic downturn, people familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity. While there is little doubt that the Awami League will emerge as the largest party, there are questions as to whether the party's margin of victory will be as impressive as in the past two elections, they said.
"The Awami League is not expected to win as many seats as in past elections and will have to depend on the numerous independent candidates who are also contesting the election," one of the people cited above said.
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