Mapping Muslim voting behaviour

With the stage set for the ultimate electoral contest, a look at the key factors that may dictate the outcome

- Feyaad Allie

While it is unlikely that Muslims will vote entirely on their caste or any other sub-identity, it is clear that sub-identities will shape both campaigning and voting to an extent 

Since the milestone victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 general elections, political observers have closely watched the Muslim S minority's response in the electoral arena. Available data suggests that in subsequent state elections, Muslims have largely voted against the BJP and for the leading challenger party. There are, however, several caveats to this observation. Alongside this consolidation of the Muslim vote, salient social and political differences within the Muslim population have simultaneously surfaced. For example, Muslim caste hierarchies (and other sub-identities such as sect) have become important topics of mainstream political conversations. This raises pressing questions for electoral dynamics as the 2024 general elections approach. Should the idea of a coherent Muslim voting bloc be retired? To what extent is caste relevant to the understanding of Muslim voting behaviour? Do group-based solidarities around religion and caste exist for Muslims?

Monolith or a mosaic?

In popular election analyses, Muslims are often treated as a homogeneous voting bloc. Yet, Muslims hardly make up a monolithic community that acts in a coordinated fashion; just like Hindus, Muslims are divided on class, sect, caste, and regional lines.

Prior to 2019, Muslim voting behaviour was significantly fragmented, with no clear signs of constituency-level coordination behind a single political party. Notably, voting behaviour has become more complex since the BJP's 2019 victory.