Poll-bound B'desh is at an inflection point

An impasse between the ruling and Opposition parties in Bangladesh risks unrest, and might compel a third actor to intervene: The army. But it could dislocate the civil-military balance

“You know their character. They are quite terrorists," Bangladesh's Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina recently noted about the country's main Opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The latter's one-point demand for Hasina's resignation, accompanied by serial protests despite police restrictions, violence by proAwami League (AL) mastans (musclemen), and counter-rallies by the ruling party has ratcheted up Dhaka's political temperature. The BNP wants a caretaker government to administer the upcoming polls due before January 2024, but Hasina won't budge. The balance of power - with the State apparatus under AL's control and mass opinion rising for the BNP-is such that a stalemate has emerged. Far from being unforeseen, it has a déjà vu feel to it.

But the risk with such predictably tense situations is that they can spiral out of control. Just like there is no guarantee that the BNP protests will forever remain peaceful, the endurance of Hasina's political fortress is equally uncertain. If one is to go by the uptick in burnt buses, fake news-fueled propaganda, inter-party clashes, mass detentions, and mounting diplomatic pressure on Hasina to hold free and fair elections by the United States (US) and its European allies, the chances of political dislocation aren't low.

The fact that no caretaker government can exist without the consent of the two parties, compels one to ask, what if a consensus is never reached? Hasina could double-down against the BNP. Even if it doesn't lead to a mass uprising, another controversial election might trigger an armed pushback by the AL's opponents across the ideological spectrum.