MICHIGAN: Israel's airstrikes of October 26, 2024—which hit around 20 military targets in Iran, Iraq, and Syria—had been anticipated for weeks. Indeed, the operation followed a promise from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate for an earlier ballistic missile attack by Tehran in early October.
The move also follows a pattern that has seen Iran and Israel take turns to up the ante in what was, for a long time, a "shadow war," but which has now developed into direct confrontation.
These tit-for-tat attacks prompted widespread fears that the whole region was poised to enter a more escalatory phase. But, counterintuitive though it may seem, I believe that the latest Israeli strikes may actually have defused tensions.
To understand why, it is worth analyzing the nature and scale of the Israeli operation, as well as the likely stance of decision-makers in Israel, Iran, and the United States in the aftermath of the attack.
A calibrated attack by Israel
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