Wintry January mornings are known to obscure clear 20/20 vision. When combined with year-end revelries, a chemically-induced mist occludes the faculty of foresight. But, as 2024 fades into the history pages, the year-end miasma might still hold some clues to prospects in 2025.
Among the many elements that will influence events, four global factors are critical because their impact will be felt on global interest rates, commodity prices, currency values and equity indices; these ripples promise to travel far and wide, including to India. Two of these elements involve strong men engaged in a game of one-upmanship.
One thing is certain: the incoming government in the US is sure to keep risk managers, forecasting agencies, scenario planners and geopolitical analysts busy. With Donald Trump promising to weaponize tariffs and clamp immigrant flows, while mocking climate change and taking an axe to the US's multilateral commitments, large-scale unpredictability is likely to undergird the next 12 months. This has the potential to upset growth and inflation projections, forcing Federal Reserve action that could shave values from global markets.
The trailer of another future volatile scenario was available recently when Republican members in the US Congress defied a Trump diktat to freeze a spending bill. With Trump and these Republican lawmakers certain to butt heads on more issues in the coming months, analysts should be prepared for a greatly impetuous White House impacting governance and the economy.
Denne historien er fra December 30, 2024-utgaven av Mint Chennai.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent ? Logg på
Denne historien er fra December 30, 2024-utgaven av Mint Chennai.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
The bar for successful obesity drugs has been rising sharply
Nothing else explains why Novo's stock fell after a drug test result
Our Consumption Study Doesn't Feed Policy Well
India's latest survey of household spending on consumption picks up significant trends but offers an unclear snapshot of upper-end expenses. Policy cues should be taken selectively
Manmohan's understated leadership set a fine example
His self-assured openness to all views was an inspiration for decision makers keen to resist groupthink
The Union Budget Should Focus on Lifting Consumption Growth
That is key, since investments haven't picked up, but there may be little fiscal space for big tax cuts
Rupee Slide: What It Means for India and Your Wealth
Investments must align with your objectives and risk appetite, not currency depreciation
Are Diamonds Forever? Insights From 22 Years of Zero-Return Saga
Diamonds, synonymous with luxury, captivate investors, but their investment potential tells a different story
Markets rebound in first session of '25 on buying in blue-chips
Benchmark Sensex and Nifty started the New Year on a high note with the key indices closing higher in a see-saw trade on Wednesday on buying in blue-chip stocks.
'Air India will raise its global coverage'
Air India has covered a lot of ground since privatisation and its global coverage will further increase in the years ahead, the airline's chief Campbell Wilson said.
A-One Steels files DRHP with Sebi
Integrated steel manufacturer A-One Steels India has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise ₹650 crore through an initial public offering (IPO).
Centre, states collect gross GST revenue of ₹1.76 tn in Dec
This was the lowest collection in 3 months but showed a rise of 7.3% from last year
