Why the Pundits and Junk Polls got the Midterm Elections Wrong

“I am angry at the chorus of armchair pundits who created a dominant media narrative around the red wave with little evidence of it.

- Marc H. Morial

I’m furious about that because, for those of us who do the work on the ground to persuade [people] to vote, it was actually a challenging narrative environment when voters and all of us are being told, “This is going to be a red wave or a red tsunami,” as if, for instance, women voters had amnesia from the summer around the overturning of Roe v. Wade and were just focused on the economy and inflation. Not true, it turns out.

Or Black voters, yet again, basically the conscience of America, turning out and showing up and really voting our values around racial justice and freedom and resilience.” – Dorian Warren, co-president, Community Change, and Community Change Action

A little over two weeks before Election Day, New York Times columnist David Brooks helpfully explained Why Republicans Are Surging.

The only problem: They weren’t. And they didn’t.