ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT: A DANGEROUS MOMENT

Conventions governing escalation have been cast aside: Peace and prosperity seem an illusion

INTRODUCTION

Hassan Nasrallah assassination is a severe blow not only to Hezbollah but also to Iranian-backed proxies across the region. Hezbollah was Iran's closest ally and critical deterrent force, the central pillar of Tehran's "axis of resistance." For Israel, his death was a bold escalatory step. His death and the limited ground invasion into Lebanon that followed resulted in a retaliation from Iran, by them launching nearly 200 ballistic missiles at military targets in Israel.

Since 07 October last year, Israel has consistently demonstrated a willingness to up the ante in its fight against Hamas's regional backers, including Iran and Hezbollah. Over the last year, Israel has been systematically killing top operatives of Hezbollah and IRGC. It has steadily degraded Iran, based on a premise that Iran was unwilling to enter a full-scale war with Israel. Simultaneously Israel also felt they needed to take decisive military action regardless of the costs in order it to manage and contain the threats on its borders.

With its deterrence and invincibility having suffered and the manner in which the war in Gaza is progressing in spite of the large-scale destruction and collateral damage inflicted Israel has now turned its focus on Hezbollah and Iran.

Its recent attacks in Iran and Lebanon have also demonstrated both, the degree to which its intelligence agencies have extensively penetrated both Iranian and Hezbollah networks as also its vast mining of data and technological edge.