Growth slows, cannot rely on past momentum

Let's Discuss How to Rebound

- Dr. Srinath Sridharan

Instead of glossing over the numbers or sugar-coating the reality, we now have the clarity of data—it's evident that our economy is slowing. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) has projected India's GDP growth at 6.4% for FY25 (current fiscal), a marked decline from 8.2% in FY24.

This slowdown, the sharpest since the pandemic, indicates vulnerabilities in the Indian economy. The silver lining is that this awareness gives us a starting point to have honest discussions about how to stage a rebound, and not to mistakenly take the foot off the pedal. This is a wake-up call as the government prepares the Union Budget amidst tightening fiscal constraints and mounting global uncertainties.

MANUFACTURING WEAKNESS

The manufacturing sector, touted as central to India's ambition of becoming a global production hub, is set to grow by just 5.3% in FY25, down from a robust 9.9% in FY24. This sharp deceleration raises concerns about the effectiveness of flagship initiatives like Make in India and the production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes. Manufacturing is a key driver of job creation and value addition; a prolonged slowdown in this sector could lead to weakened employment prospects and stifled industrial competitiveness. If we cannot reinvigorate our manufacturing base, we risk falling behind in global supply chains at a time when geopolitical realignments favour diversification away from China.

SERVICES SECTOR: LOSING MOMENTUM