The chatter across Asia pivots around preparing for Trump 2.0. Is Asia better prepared this time? The greatest worry pivots around the 'T' word - tariffs. "To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. It's my favourite word. It needs a public relations firm," Trump said, while addressing some 600 business executives in Chicago in October.
Most Asians do not get the joke. They are worried that higher tariffs and weaker global demand will impact Asia's economic growth. "Trump's re-election has less of a shock factor given greater familiarity with his policies. Asia is also more resilient, due to the ongoing trends of US-China decoupling, shifts in global supply chains and lower Asian exports to China. Yet, Trump 2.0 will likely mean more policy uncertainty, which may be a negative for Asia," says Nomura, a global financial services group.
No one knows for sure what Trump 2.0 would mean, given how unpredictable he is; much of what is being said can be described as intelligent guesses given his past record and his recent statements.
"While the broader economic and geopolitical impact is negative for Asia, especially for China and South Korea, we see India and Malaysia as relative beneficiaries due to ongoing supply chain shifts," say Nomura economists, Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh. According to Nomura's economic analysts, tariffs and tax policy are likely to be the focus under Trump 2.0. The US administration may implement 60% tariffs against China, going by Trump's widely-publicised proposals.
Arguably, China is directly in the line of US President-elect Donald Trump's fire and India and the United States share deep economic and strategic interests, which may work in India's favour as multinational corporations look to diversify their supply chains. But there are complications in the supply chain story which affects both Southeast Asia and India.
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