"The Middle East is quieter today than it has been in decades," said the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, in a fate-tempting speech a week before the Hamas attacks.
The plan was to "ultimately integrate" the region by encouraging further normalisation between Arab states and Israel, thereby isolating and taming Iran. It hasn't worked. The 7 October attacks put the Middle East back on Biden's desk. Arab countries have a habit of behaving in ways dictated by domestic calculations and regional ambitions rather than western foreign policy priorities.
The result is that all bets are off. And in a matter of weeks the Middle East and wider Arab world have become drawn into the war in a way that has not been met by appropriate action by the US and other Israeli allies.
Underpinning the paralysis is a linchpin of the US's Middle East foreign policy: that Israel is the US's key security partner in the region, and that reconsidering its arming and support is therefore out of the question.
The cost of this logic is high, and escalating. The talk is of "fears of a wider war in the Middle East", but the truth is that war is already here. It has now spilled into Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.
Denne historien er fra January 12, 2024-utgaven av The Guardian Weekly.
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Denne historien er fra January 12, 2024-utgaven av The Guardian Weekly.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
Allerede abonnent? Logg på
Starlink's conquest of the Amazon leaves Brazil in a dilemma
The helicopter swooped into one of the most inaccessible corners of the Amazon rainforest. Brazilian special forces commandos leaped from it into the caiman-inhabited waters below.
Dalai Lama's mountain town feels the strain of tourist boom
SUVs and saloon cars pass slowly along McLeod Ganj's narrow one-way Jogiwara Road, blaring horns at pedestrians and scooter riders and playing loud music.
'I am all the world' The brutal rule of a West Bank settler
Palestinians tell ofblacklisted Yakov's reign across the Jabal Salman valley and heisjust one of many violent bosses
Stormy waters New flashpoint emerges in South China Sea dispute
Hopes that tensions in the South China Sea might ease have been short lived.
'Justice delayed' Why trust in public inquiries to bring closure is fading
After the final report of the Grenfell fire inquiry was published, Hisam Choucair, who lost six family members in the blaze, said: \"We did not ask for this inquiry... It's delayed the justice my family deserves.\"
Celeriac soup with almond pangrattato
I'm not ashamed to say that as soon as September hits, my stick blender comes out. Just as I embrace salads when the clocks go forward in the UK, I wholeheartedly throw myself into soup season once the summer holidays end. Autumn is approaching in the northern hemisphere and I'm ready with my ladle. Celeriac is one of my favourite soup heroes, because it gives the creamiest, silkiest finish with little effort. You don't have to make the almond pangrattato, but it is a wonderful addition.
Are smoke signals telling me to make an oil change in the kitchen?
Should you that is, not can you) cook with extra-virgin olive oil? Antonio, Atlanta, Georgia, US
Going underground
A darkly humorous encounter between an American spy-cop and the members ofan eco-commune she is hired to infiltrate
All work and no play
Hard Graft, a powerfulnew London exhibition, focuses onworkers’ exploitation, from the ruined hands ofa washerwoman to mothers forced to sell their bodies
What the princess and the shaman tell us about hereditary privilege
It should have been an Instagram-perfect wedding image, but it turned out to be something more embarrassing.
