'We're in 1938 now' Putin's war in Ukraine and lessons from history

Some analysts believe Kyiv is buying the west time on the precipice of a world war. Does the experience of previous conflicts suggest this time is being used wisely?

- PATRICK WINTOUR

When big history is self-evidently being written, and leaders face momentous choices, the urge to find inspiration in instructive historical parallels is overwhelming and natural. "The only clue to what man can do is what man has done," the Oxford historian RG Collingwood once wrote. One of the contemporary politicians most influenced by the past is the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, and not just because of her country's occupation by Russia or her personal family history of exile.

Kallas lugs books on Nato-Russian relations, such as Not One Inch, with her on beach holidays. And in her hi-tech office at the top of the old town in Tallinn, she argued this was a 1938 moment - a moment when a wider war was imminent but the west had not yet joined the dots.

She said the same mistake was made in 1938 when tensions in Abyssinia, Japan and Germany were treated as isolated events. The proximate causes of the current conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, the South China Sea and even Armenia might be different, but the bigger picture showed an interconnected battlefield in which post-cold war certainties had given way to "great-power competition" in which authoritarian leaders were testing the boundaries of their empires. The lesson - and necessity - was to resist and rearm. "The lesson from 1938 and 1939 is that if aggression pays off somewhere, it serves as an invitation to use it elsewhere," Kallas said.

Her favourite historian, Prof Tim Snyder, adds a twist by reimagining 1938 as a year in which Czechoslovakia, like Ukraine in 2022, had chosen to fight: "So you had in Czechoslovakia, like Ukraine, an imperfect democracy. It's the farthest democracy in eastern Europe. It has various problems, but when threatened by a larger neighbour, it chooses to resist. In that world, where Czechoslovakia resists, there's no second world war."