Global economy Talk of a soft landing is premature. Many threats are lurking

Central bankers are feeling smug. The fears of 12 to 18 months ago that the global economy was likely to crash as a result of rising interest rates have proved unfounded.

- Larry Elliott

Inflation has subsided without the expected sharp increase in unemployment.

Although not reflected in Joe Biden's poll ratings, the US's performance has been impressive, with strong growth and not even a hint of recession. Other parts of the developed world, such as the UK, have performed less well but have shown a degree of resilience.

Cue talk of a soft landing, to be accompanied by falling interest rates and rising asset prices.

After a period of adverse shocks, life is finally returning to normal.

The future will bring a return to prosperity brought about by the harnessing of new technology.

The arrival of the fourth industrial revolution will usher in a new golden age of inclusive capitalism.

That, at least, is the theory and it could turn out to be true. But the idea that a soft landing is in the bag is premature. There are plenty of dark scenarios lurking out there: a hard landing for liberal democracy, for capitalism, and for the planet.

Kristalina Georgieva is one of the optimists. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) used a speech at King's College, Cambridge last week to reprise John Maynard Keynes's upbeat 1930 essay, Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.