Polls under fire after failing to predict Trump win despite new methodologies
The Guardian|November 07, 2024
US polling agencies are under fire after the third presidential election in a row for failing to foresee the emphatic ballot box triumph that will propel Donald Trump back to the White House.
Robert Tait
Polls under fire after failing to predict Trump win despite new methodologies

Having seriously underestimated Trump's support in the 2016 and 2020 elections, polling agencies trumpeted a recalibrated methodology for 2024 that was meant to more realistically reflect his standing while restoring their own credibility.

Instead, pollsters are now being called on to explain a broad range of surveys that had shown two candidates essentially deadlocked both nationally and in battleground states in a race that was deemed too close to call.

Compounding the embarrassment, many experts in the run-up to polling day predicted a narrow electoral college victory for Kamala Harris, who was foreseen by some as just about achieving a win in a majority of the seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

In fact, Trump had won five of those states at the time of publication and was leading in Nevada and Arizona, which had yet to be called.

Most notable was a poll published last weekend by the Des Moines Register that showed Harris with a three point lead over Trump in the Republican stronghold state of lowa - supposedly fuelled by widespread outrage among female voters over the restriction of abortion rights.

The poll, carried out by Ann Selzer - an Iowa pollster renowned among her peers for reliability - fed Democratic hopes of a groundswell of support among female voters that could potentially carry over to neighbouring Michigan and Wisconsin.

Selzer continued to vouch for its findings even as Trump's campaign dismissed it as a "fake poll" and "a clear outlier".

"I've been the outlier queen so many times," Selzer, whose polling correctly foretold Barack Obama's triumph in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, told the New York Times. "I'm not jumpy." Actual events proved the poll to be a dud. Iowa was called for Trump early and with nearly all the votes counted yesterday, he led by an emphatic 55.9% to 42.7%.

Denne historien er fra November 07, 2024-utgaven av The Guardian.

Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.

Denne historien er fra November 07, 2024-utgaven av The Guardian.

Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.

FLERE HISTORIER FRA THE GUARDIANSe alt
The Guardian

Peace deal

What will the agreement entail?

time-read
2 mins  |
November 27, 2024
'I felt the scapegoat' Bellingham laments media treatment on England duty
The Guardian

'I felt the scapegoat' Bellingham laments media treatment on England duty

Jude Bellingham has said he felt the \"whole world crumbling down on me\" after being mistreated and made a scapegoat for England's defeat in the European Championship final.

time-read
2 mins  |
November 27, 2024
The Guardian

United spent £8.6m sacking staff in drive to cut costs

Manchester United spent £8.6m on redundancies in the first quarter of its financial year due to Sir Jim Ratcliffe's drive to reduce the workforce from around 1,000 by 250, the club's latest accounts show.

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
The Guardian

Slot says contract dispute may be bringing best out of Salah

Khephren Thuram on his father Lilian's activism, what Thierry Henry always told him, and facing Aston Villa

time-read
2 mins  |
November 27, 2024
Saka leads Arsenal's charge to blast away doubts on the road in Europe
The Guardian

Saka leads Arsenal's charge to blast away doubts on the road in Europe

This was some response to charges of being shot shy. Arsenal's lack of cutting edge on foreign trips had been the pre-match talking point but it turned out they had saved up a hiding for the continent's form team.

time-read
3 mins  |
November 27, 2024
City stunned by late fightback as Guardiola's winless run goes on
The Guardian

City stunned by late fightback as Guardiola's winless run goes on

Manchester City's losing sequence is over - just. But they are still a listing ship that can go down at any moment.

time-read
3 mins  |
November 27, 2024
Kerr breaks new ground coaching men at Hearts
The Guardian

Kerr breaks new ground coaching men at Hearts

Shelley Kerr will lead male player development at the Edinburgh club

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
'He's a cool cat' Special Bethell ready to pounce on Test debut
The Guardian

'He's a cool cat' Special Bethell ready to pounce on Test debut

Test debutant has impressed everyone from a young age but can he carry off batting at No 3 against New Zealand?

time-read
3 mins  |
November 27, 2024
West Brom deny Isidor and hold out for draw
The Guardian

West Brom deny Isidor and hold out for draw

Sunderland extended their unbeaten run to 10 games but, as the smattering of gentle boos that greeted the final whistle testified, it was most certainly not a cause for celebration on Wearside.

time-read
2 mins  |
November 27, 2024
George in the groove and ready to rock for England
The Guardian

George in the groove and ready to rock for England

Manchester United left-back was never going to let rehab end her dream and hopes for a Wembley bow against USA

time-read
2 mins  |
November 27, 2024