'Why bother?' Tories face task of getting 'Whitby woman' to vote

'It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always get in." Sue Paling wryly quoting a wise friend - is one of many undecided voters in Whitby.

- Robyn Vinter

The landlady of the historic Black Horse pub on Church Street in the centre of the medieval North Yorkshire fishing town is representative of a disproportionate chunk of women nationally who are not sure where to place their vote on 4 July.

About 15% of voters are still undecided, according to the research consultancy More in Common. This is not unusual a month before a general election, but what makes it different is the significant proportion who backed the Conservatives in 2019, said its UK executive director, Luke Tryl.

What is even more interesting is the profile of these undecided voters: more likely to be women, owning homes in towns and suburbs, with an average age of 61, less likely to have a degree, more likely to have voted for Brexit.

These are overrepresented in the constituency of Scarborough and Whitby and, when looking at Labour's list of targeted seats, "actually Scarborough and Whitby becomes the seat which gives Labour an overall majority" based on current polling, Tryl said.

Rather than being a true undecided, "Whitby woman" is really a "disgruntled Conservative", and the challenge for Rishi Sunak's party would be motivating her to vote at all, he added. "The parallel with 1997 is it wasn't just that the Tories lost lots of votes to Labour, it was that reliable conservative voters stayed at home.".

While Whitby woman may sound like something from a political marketing manual, it appeared to bear out when the Guardian spent time in the constituency talking to this demographic about how they plan to vote - if they decide to head to the ballot box at all.

At the Black Horse - a tiny, tworoom pub serving Whitby ales, pork pies and cheese boards - the fare is more local than most of the clientele, many of whom are holidaymakers visiting for the rugged coastal beauty and the town's connection with Bram Stoker's Dracula.