World is on edge of climate abyss, UN says after damning Guardian survey

The world is on the verge of a climate abyss, the UN has warned, in response to a Guardian survey that found that hundreds of the world's foremost climate experts expect global heating to soar past the target of 1.5C.

- Damian Carrington

Leading climate figures have reacted to the findings, saying the scientists' despair must be a renewed wake-up call for urgent and radical action to stop burning fossil fuels and save millions of lives and livelihoods.

Some said the target of a maximum rise of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels was hanging by a thread, but it was not yet inevitable it would be passed, if an extraordinary change in the pace of climate action could be achieved.

The Guardian recorded the views of almost 400 senior authors of reports by the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Almost 80% expected a rise of at least 2.5C, a catastrophic level, while only 6% thought it would stay within the 1.5C limit. Many expressed anguish at the lack of climate action.

"The goal of ... 1.5C is hanging by a thread," said the spokesperson for António Guterres, the UN secretary general. "The battle to keep 1.5C alive will be won or lost in the 2020s - under the watch of political and industry leaders today. They need to realise we are on the verge of the abyss. The science is clear and so are the world's scientists: the stakes for all humanity could not be higher."

Sir Alok Sharma, the president of the Cop26 climate summit in 2021, said: "The results of the Guardian's survey should be another wake-up call for governments to stop prevaricating and inject much more urgency into delivering on the climate commitments they have already made." He said world leaders needed to deliver on their pledge at Cop28 to transition away from fossil fuels.

Christiana Figueres, the UN climate chief who oversaw the 2015 Paris deal where the 1.5C goal was adopted, wrote in the Guardian: "These climate scientists are doing their job. They are telling us where we are, but now it's up to the rest of us to decide what this moment requires of us and [to] turn the seemingly impossible into the new normal."