Could the Tories actually come third in the election?

Even when the situation is hopeless, the leaders of a doomed party in a general election usually try to show a brave face.

- SEAN O'GRADY

They have set phrases to rely on in such difficult circumstances. “The only poll that matters is the one on polling day.” “All to play for.” “Lots of undecideds out there.” “That’s not what we’re hearing.” “It’s too early to say, let’s see what the results are.”

Indeed, that has been the pattern this year, too – until now. In effect conceding defeat, and a heavy one at that, top Tories are now asking voters to back them to provide a strong opposition to the expected Labour landslide, or “supermajority”, as they’re calling it. That, translated, means don’t vote for Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats, as well as not voting for Labour. It is a transparent effort to rally the wavering Tories, and/or a hint that Labour voters needn’t turn out.

Grant Shapps was the first to get this chatter going about a week ago, and now Mel Stride, a close ally of Rishi Sunak, is claiming that the scale of the Labour majority in the Commons will exceed that of New Labour in 1997, or the National Government in 1931. Everyone agrees that this election will be “historic” – but how “historic” and record-breaking it will be remains to be seen.

As always with Britain’s idiosyncratic voting system, it’s (almost) a matter of how well the parties are doing not in absolute terms, but in relation to their rivals. “Lead” is the thing, and everything is relative, as Einstein never quite said...

Will Labour’s majority be the largest in history?