So, I have to admit from the outset that the best way to treat the current Tory leadership contest - the second round of which saw Mel Stride eliminated, and Kemi Badenoch recover some of her earlier momentum – is as pure spectator sport, one with nothing very substantial at stake. A pre-season friendly rather than a league-defining match.
Whichever of the four remaining candidates emerges from this obscure struggle is certain not to be the next prime minister of the UK – at least, not at the next election. Despite a turbulent start and an underwhelming election win (camouflaged by the voting system), even if Labour lose a lot of ground at the next election, Reform UK and the other parties will probably be the beneficiaries – and the Tories less so.
And even if the Conservatives did somehow manage to become the largest party in parliament, the Lib Dems would not, next time round, help them into government. Neither would Nigel Farage. The Tories are, essentially, electing an interim leader. That said – and with relatively little riding on it – it is still fascinating to watch.
Before things even got going, Suella Braverman – once one of the favourites – couldn’t muster a campaign. Instead, we saw how her extremism and unsuitability for the post had finally exhausted the patience of her staunchest allies, such as John Hayes, who is no one’s idea of a “wet”. That was a fragment of a straw in the wind that suggested the party was getting back its senses.
Denne historien er fra September 11, 2024-utgaven av The Independent.
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Denne historien er fra September 11, 2024-utgaven av The Independent.
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