What are the chances of a Labour revival in Scotland?
It comes at a time of transition within Scottish politics, with the fieldwork being undertaken during the process of John Swinney taking over from Humza Yousaf as SNP leader and first minister - a change that involved some speculation and a little turbulence along the way. It suggests that significant shifts in the balance of political power in Scotland, and across the UK as a whole, will be witnessed in the coming months and years...
Why is this such a big deal?
It's always important not to read too much into one poll and instead to examine the trends, but the course of the data over the past year or so does tend to indicate something of a Labour revival alongside a weak SNP, as common sense would suggest.
In power since 2007, with a divided and enervated opposition, the SNP has dominated the scene to a remarkable degree. Indeed, the fiercest and most momentous debates in Scotland have been between different factions of the SNP, covering the personal rift between Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, the strategy to secure and win a second independence referendum, transgender rights, and relations with the Scottish Greens, the SNP's latterly unhappy coalition partner.
Now, though, after being in power since 2007 and suffering setbacks, splits, financial scandals, and a bitter leadership contest last year, the SNP looks exhausted. To be fair, polling in the mid-30s is probably quite encouraging given the scale of the bad news the SNP has endured ever since Sturgeon quit and the police started sniffing around at least in comparison with the miserable showing of the Tories in England (who are barely more popular now than they are in traditionally hostile Scotland).
How does this affect Labour's chances of winning the UK general election later this year?
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