THE MORE THEY BICKER, THE MORE THEY STAY SAME

Though the US presidential candidates promise diverse economic policy choices to voters, they have little room to manoeuvre. Ergo, politics turns into a contest like American Idol

- SATYAJIT DAS

MODERN US politics follows Roman satirist Juvenal's prescription of "panis et circenses"-bread and circuses. After the soap opera surrounding President Joe Biden's candidacy-John Kenneth Galbraith held that anyone who says he won't resign four times will do so-the contest has been re-energised, but voters have few meaningful choices.

First, the candidates' policies are similar. Neither candidate will address the budget deficit. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the 2024 shortfall will be $2 trillion, growing to $2.8 trillion by 2034-6-7 percent of the US GDP. The ability to control outgoings is limited.

Three-quarters of the total spending is mandatory-with social security, major health programmes and interest nearing $900 billion, around 3 percent of the GDP and nearly 18 percent of government revenues. With the untouchable defence constituting over 40 percent of the rest, only 15 percent of spending is discretionary. Politicians, irrespective of ideology, are reluctant to raise taxes to levels required for sound public finances.

Debt will rise from the current 99 percent of GDP to 122 percent by 2034. Like Ronald Reagan, modern leaders think government debt is big enough to take care of itself.

Inflation outcomes depend on energy and food prices as well as geopolitical and climatic events. The theoretically-independent Federal Reserve sets interest rates. Democrats are cautious about the effects of globalised supply chains on employment. Republicans have abandoned their free trade roots. They embrace victimhood-America is taken advantage of by the world-and their new blue-collar constituencies. Trade barriers implemented by Donald Trump and maintained by his successor are like to increase under either candidate.