Syria after Assad's fall

Syrian rebel forces captured Damascus and forced President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Moscow with his family, where he has been granted refuge. In just over a week, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), translated into 'Organization for the liberation of the Levant,' backed by Turkey, captured the cities of Aleppo, Hama and Homs, before entering Damascus and overthrowing a ruler who had managed to survive the Arab Spring by violently suppressing the agitation. This has thrown the entire region into a mess.

- HARSHA KAKAR

The HTS, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa alias Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was formerly associated with ISIS and subsequently with al Qaeda. It is still considered a terrorist group by some Western nations. Interestingly, over the years while Turkey, Israel and the US militarily engaged with different Syrian groups including its armed forces, none ever targeted the HTS.

Hoping to gain global acceptance, al-Jolani mentioned that he intends to focus on organized governance in Syria. By appointing Mohamad al-Bashir, the administrator of the earlier rebel-held territory, HTS conveyed its intent on governance. The HTS also reached out to Iraq and Lebanon seeking good ties and non-interference.

Iran and Russia had propped up the al-Assad regime in Syria. Russia, involved in Ukraine, while Iran, internally divided amongst those desiring to support Assad and those opposing this, did not provide the requisite military power to face the HTS offensive. Hezbollah, which had earlier sent its soldiers to support the Syrian armed forces backed down due to Israel's relentless military offensive against it. The weakened and underpaid Syrian army collapsed rapidly, in many cases discarding their arms and ammunition before fleeing. The end came quickly, bringing back memories of the collapse of the Saddam Hussain regime in Iraq battling the US, as also Afghan forces fighting the Taliban advance. Nations in the region have begun recalibrating their strategies.