Forgotten Iran

Trump had wrongly predicted that the 'pariahised' Iranians would come begging for a new deal under pressure, but he was wrong. They didn't. On the contrary, the Iranians have frantically ratcheted up production of bomb-grade nuclear fuel and have essentially blinded the international inspectors from reviews. With the scientific knowhow acquired, the 'nuclear breakout' stage (time required to put together a bomb), which was estimated at about a year in 2015, is expected to be a few weeks

- BHOPINDER SINGH

President Barack Obama's farewell speech on 10 January 2017, after eight years in the White House, spelt out his major diplomacy successes. Amongst the foremost achievements was to 'shut down Iran's nuclear weapons program without firing a shot'. The Iran Nuclear Deal was not based on trust, but on hard verification and ratification by the global watchdog agency i.e., International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as also the other signatories of the P5+1 comity ~ the United States of America, United Kingdom, Russia, China, France plus Germany.

There were some critics of the deal for example, then incoming President Donald Trump and his brother-in-arms in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, there was near unanimous consensus that the deal was certainly preferable to the only other alternative i.e., no deal, and its obvious consequences of further irritating Iran, fueling an arms race, extremism and pushing Iran into the willing arms of China.

Soon Trump took over and brazenly reneged on the deal unilaterally. Despite pusillanimous protests from IAEA and other P5+1 signatories, the worst fears likening the situation to the continuation of a 'no deal' scenario, came true.

Unfair theatrics by Trump was not only an affront to Iranian sovereign pride but a backslide to crippling sanctions in Iran. Consequently, what was feared happened, as rule by moderates and reformists like Hasan Rouhani was rejected in favour of hardliners like Ebrahim Raisi (who had lost earlier elections to the moderate faction (he got only 38.3 per cent votes in 2017 but won 62.9 per cent votes in 2021). The derailed Iran Nuclear Deal was behind the 'loss-loss' situation.

Trump had wrongly predicted that the 'pariahised' Iranians would come begging for a new deal under pressure, but he was wrong. They didn't.