7 swing states and the swing counties that matter the most

In a tight contest, many believe these are where the presidential race will be decided

- Bhagyashree Garekar

Bhagyashree Garekar US Bureau Chief WASHINGTON - The Sept 15 attempted assassination of Donald Trump was just another extraordinary moment in a US presidential race that has, in the past two months, seen a sitting president drop out of the running and pave the way for a woman of colour to replace him on the ticket.

It says something about the state of the race that there has been more discussion about the competence of the US Secret Service than on a former president's two brushes with death in as many months.

Such is the closeness of the race and the depth of polarisation of voters that analysts struggle to explain what will move the needle in this election.

What is not in dispute, however, is that while millions of Americans will be voting on Nov 5, the winner is likely to be decided by votes cast in a handful of counties in just seven of America's 50 states.

This is the result of America's electoral college system, conceived in the 18th century as a compromise between those who wanted the president elected by popular vote and those who preferred the president to be chosen by Congress.

The electoral college is also intended to prevent larger states from dominating the process and reducing the potential for "tyranny of the majority" to prevail.

It is the reason why two candidates who lost the national popular vote still won the election in recent decades: Mr George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016.

Most states are predictably red or blue; 36 states consistently voted along the same party lines in the past six presidential elections between 2000 and 2020.

Less predictable are the "swing states", where the voters are closely divided politically and tend to swing back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates.