Indonesia's terror attack risk level rises amid upcoming national events: Analysts

Indonesia will celebrate its independence day in August, install a new president in October and hold regional elections in November three major national events that offer opportunities for latent terrorists to strike and inflict maximum damage on South-east Asia's largest nation, security analysts say.

- Hariz Baharudin

While Indonesia did not suffer from any terror attacks in 2023 and has not so far in 2024, and the senior leadership of terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) announced its dissolution in June, the threat of terrorism is ever-present, and the danger of such incidents remains large in the archipelago.

"The risk level is elevated due to the high-profile nature of these events, their symbolic targets, and the increased gatherings they attract," Dr Noor Huda Ismail, a visiting fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told The Straits Times.

He highlighted in particular how political transitions can create an environment of heightened tensions, which could cause people to act violently and heightens the risk of attacks.

The Indonesian government and security forces are likely to implement stringent security measures to mitigate potential threats, said Dr Noor Huda.

On Aug 17, Indonesia marks 79 years of independence with celebrations at the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta, as well as the Garuda Palace in new capital city Nusantara.

Following this, President-elect Prabowo Subianto will be inaugurated on Oct 20 at the Parliamentary Complex in Jakarta, marking the start of his five-year term as Indonesia's eighth president. Almost immediately after that are the regional elections, which will be held on Nov 27 across more than 400 regencies, 30 provinces and 90 cities.