Kishida's successor faces headwinds in Japan's role as security player

How policies shape up on the foreign and defence fronts may be out of Japan's control.

- Denny Roy

Mr Fumio Kishida's announcement on Aug 14 that he will step down as Japan's Prime Minister was a surprise, but understandable. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is reeling from a campaign finance scandal, the loss of two legislative seats in recent by-elections and revelations about its links to the controversial Unification Church.

Mr Kishida himself is particularly unpopular. According to polling by Nikkei, his initial 60 per cent approval rating fell to 20 per cent for eight consecutive months up to July 2024.

A scramble is now on to find a successor who won't drag the party down in the next general election.

Among the contenders are former foreign minister Motegi Toshimitsu. Since he is currently the LDP's secretary-general, it's his turn to lead the party. But the Japanese public might interpret his selection as evidence that the LDP intends to continue with business as usual, which would leave many unimpressed.

Another candidate is former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is undertaking his fifth attempt to win the position of party leader. In a Kyodo News poll released Aug 19, he came up tops as the preferred successor to Mr Kishida at 25.3 per cent. But Mr Ishiba has limited support among senior party members. He briefly left the LDP in 1993.

Other leading candidates would push the LDP out of its comfort zone.

Mr Shinjiro Koizumi, the telegenic son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, is 43, which might be too young for traditionally minded politicians in a country that has never had a prime minister younger than 50.

Some were also displeased by his remark that he wanted to make the climate change issue "sexy".