South-east Asia's turn towards China may not last, say US analysts

Poll shows more in region prefer aligning with Beijing over US, but it doesn’t signal long-term trend

- Bhagyashree Garekar

China's status as South-east Asia's preferred superpower in a new ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute survey is likely to be short-lived, say analysts.

The annual survey of 1,994 policymakers, journalists, businessmen and analysts in Asean nations showed that they would prefer China over the US - if forced to align with either strategic rival - by a narrow margin of 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

The findings, published in the institute's The State Of South-east Asia 2024 report on April 2, point to a reversal of trends seen in the last four surveys. In 2023, 61.1 per cent chose the US, while 38.9 per cent went with China.

Analysts told The Straits Times that the findings are not too surprising and do not necessarily mean the region is uncritically closer to China.

The survey is consistent with trends seen in data from other sources over recent years, said Mr Gregory Poling, who directs the South-east Asia Programme and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

"That said, I'm not prepared to say those trends are towards a long-term preference for China," he said, noting that the Gaza war identified as the region's top geopolitical concern - had impacted responses captured in the survey.

The downward trend in trust for the US appears concentrated among the three Muslim-majority countries of the region, which suggests it is tied to the war in Gaza, he said.

Since Malaysian and Bruneian elites were already more pro-China, the real shift here is the big swing in Indonesia, he pointed out.

"It's too soon to say whether the shift in Indonesian opinion is longterm, like we saw under the Bush administration, or a short-term signal of frustration," he added.