PRIGOZHIN'S INSURRECTION WAS A GAME-CHANGER FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN

Last Saturday was one of those days when Russia-watchers were glued to their smartphones.

- John Dobson

As armoured vehicles appeared on the streets of Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner forces took control of the city of Rostov-on-Don, a major logistics hub and key military headquarters for Russia’s war on Ukraine, which should have been one of the most highly secure sites in the country. Images appeared on social media of Prigozhin, who was able to breeze into the building with his gang of mercenaries in tow, effectively taking two senior generals hostage: Vladimir Alekseyev, First Deputy Head of the General Staff main Directorate and Yunus-bek Yevkurov, Deputy Defence Minister.

While Prigozhin was talking to the two generals, who were clearly squirming in their seats, a fast-moving Wagner convoy was seen surging towards Moscow, supported and applauded by the local population. En route, it found no military opposition, except some intervention by helicopters a little further up the road to Moscow, which they shot down. At the same time, reports on social media and images on YouTube showed workers frantically digging up major highways and bridges leading to Moscow, attempting to create obstacles and delays for the Wagner troops. The Kremlin clearly feared a coup attempt was in the offing. Then, just as suddenly, Prigozhin halted his advance, avoiding any violent confrontation. To everyone’s surprise, just hours after charging the Wagner owner with treason, President Vladimir Putin then announced that he had agreed to drop all charges and that Prigozhin was set to move to Belarus, whose strongman president, Alexander Lukashenko, had negotiated the deal. So what does this incident say about the stability of Putin’s regime, the future of Prigozhin and Wagner, and Russia’s war in Ukraine?