The expert consensus estimate on GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2022-23 (Q1FY23) was around 15%. To that extent the 13.5% growth rate is a negative surprise. Nevertheless, at 13.5%, India’s GDP growth is 2.8 times higher than the average GDP growth for the 20 largest economies, which is 4.9%. India is still the good exception in a world already slowing down.
If we look at seasonally adjusted GDP growth, there’s a clear pick-up in economic momentum – quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1FY23 is 5.6%, the highest seasonally adjusted growth achieved in all first quarters since 2012-13.
Let’s now break down the GDP data to get a more nuanced picture.
All the good news
An interesting nugget first: Home sales in China have fallen for 11 months in a row, the longest slump since China created a private property market in late 1990s. In contrast, property sales in India are booming, registering 60% year-on-year growth in Q1FY23.
Turning to macro fundamentals:
Private consumption has improved on the back of good urban demand, which is getting support from contact-intensive services. Rural demand is likely to pick up pace.
Real private final consumption expenditure, which declined by Rs 4.77 trillion in Q1FY21 owing to the pandemic, is now 110% of the pre-Covid level.
Denne historien er fra September 02, 2022-utgaven av The Times of India Hyderabad.
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Denne historien er fra September 02, 2022-utgaven av The Times of India Hyderabad.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
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