Byelection may determine PM's future

Conventional wisdom suggests byelections are a consequence-free way for voters to send a message to the governing party that they are unhappy. But the results of a contest this month in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul's may prove quite consequential.

- ALTHIA RAJ

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Liberal candidate for Toronto-St. Paul's Leslie Church greet supporters last week. Insiders say Trudeau will be pressured to step down if they lose this month's byelection, Althia Raj writes.

If the Liberals do not win this riding on June 24, and it looks increasingly like that's a possibility, there will be immense pressure on Justin Trudeau to resign as their leader immediately "within days," a well-known Liberal suggested to me over the weekend.

So far, Liberal MPs have demonstrated no desire to show Trudeau the door, believing they are better off with him than without him. No one is organizing a putsch.

But a loss in Toronto-St. Paul's might change that calculation. "If we lose St. Paul's, maybe the knives come out," a Liberal caucus member said of his colleagues.

Both Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have spent time in the riding. Cabinet ministers have flocked there to knock on doors and make phone calls.

Conservative shadow ministers have pounded the pavement, hoping to drive the vote out for the Tories.

What they've heard isn't pretty, for any of the leaders, and may reflect the general mood of the country.