Let me explain. Every year I have a large ante-post profile which goes against the grain of many professional punters, but I still believe it brings a mix of expectation and a huge possibility of big profits and if I manage to hit the bullseye, say once in five years, I am certain to make a significant amount of money.
I have made fair profits in the past five years but 2021 was my annus miraculous when I had decided after watching the 2020 Festival and in particular the Supreme Novices Hurdle that Chantry House (third of 15 to Shishkin) was a horse to follow over fences as he was made for them.
What made it even more interesting as a possible ante-post play was that Envoi Allen was mopping up all the Grade 1 novice chase prizes in Ireland. But I was convinced he was flattered by those runs in small fields and mostly at moderate gallops. That scenario would likely be turned on its head at the Festival.
A week after the 2020 meeting I backed Chantry for the Turners at 33/1 and kept doing so every other week until he made his novice chase debut at Ascot, hacking up in a three-runner race, but a heavy defeat next time out and an unconvincing success at Wetherby saw his price yo-yo from 12/1 to 25/1, a price he was still available at a week before the race.
But I was convinced EA was no odds-on shot well so the term subjective value saw me double up my overall bet from the previous 11 months. As you know, the rest is history as the Irish favourite fell at the fourth fence and Chantry outstayed stable mate Fusil Raffles up the hill. By the way his price collapsed from 33/1 some six days beforehand to an SP of just 9/1!
Denne historien er fra March 2024-utgaven av Racing Ahead.
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Denne historien er fra March 2024-utgaven av Racing Ahead.
Start din 7-dagers gratis prøveperiode på Magzter GOLD for å få tilgang til tusenvis av utvalgte premiumhistorier og 9000+ magasiner og aviser.
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Tragedy Hits Racing Family - Nick Townsend reels from shock attack on John Hunt's wife and daughters
Nick Townsend reels from shock attack on John Hunt's wife and daughters. I will be far from alone in recent days in being overcome by emotions ranging from utter disbelief to revulsion upon hearing of the unspeakable acts perpetrated upon John Hunt's family, resulting in the death of his wife Carol and daughters, Hannah and Louise.
AUDIENCE IS ERUPTING
John Anthony reveals the latest top speedsters after another Glorious Goodwood
HORSE OF A LIFETIME
Graham Buddry pays fresh tribute to track legend Sea The Stars - surely one of the greatest ever
IT'S TIME TO TAKE STOCK
Paul Jacobs looks forward to seeing some big on-track questions answered
PLAYING TO THE WHISTLE
lan Heitman flies about to keep pace with a rush of two-year-old Flat action
WINNING JOY ON A BUDGET
Richard Eagle takes a trip to Windsor to check out peoples' route into the port of kings
GIFT HORSES AND FRENCH LESSONS
Robert Cooper finds 'retirement' is keeping him busy
FEUD GETS THE PARTY ROLLING
Karl Hedley savours the Galway Festival action and picks out the summer highlights at Ballybrit
ROCKING THE MONEY BAGS
Simon Nott reveals his recent experiences from trips to Brighton and Ascot
FLYING EVE'S BORN TO WIN
Nick Townsend talks to in-form trainer Eve Johnson Houghton