Plunging energy prices pulled the government’s producer price index down 0.5% from February to March; it had been unchanged from January to February. Compared with a year ago, wholesale prices were up 2.7% in March — the mildest 12-month increase since January 2021 and down significantly from a 4.7% annual rise in February.
The Labor Department’s producer price index reflects prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers. It can provide an early sign of how fast consumer inflation will rise.
A huge drop in wholesale gasoline accounted for much of the sharp slowdown in producer prices. But even excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core wholesale inflation fell 0.1% in March, the first such drop in nearly three years. The Fed and many private economists regard core prices as a better gauge of underlying inflation. Core wholesale inflation was up just 3.4% from March 2022, the lowest year-over-year rise since 2021.
Behind last month’s drop in core prices was a sharp decline in wholesale costs for warehousing and transportation. Overall services prices fell 0.3%, the first such drop since November 2020.
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