New world order

Unipolarity has run its course and the lesson of the Ukrainian war is the inevitable movement towards multipolarity. The increased military assistance to Ukraine will only prolong that country`s agony just as it was in the case of Vietnam in the 1960s and 70s. A new world order is emerging with new centres of power. The war in Ukraine will accelerate this irreversible process

- SUBRATA MUKHERJEE

In comprehending the present conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the post-communist scenario of the 1990s evolution provides interesting insights. When the Soviet Union collapsed many of its republics became independent nations.

They included the Central Asian republics, the Baltic states, Georgia and Ukraine.

Ukraine occupies a large European landmass, equal to France. But in sharp contrast to many other European nations, Ukraine's demographics are problematic and are the root cause of the present conflict. East and south of the country comprise mainly ethnic Russians whereas the west and the central portion are mostly Ukrainian.

Despite a large degree of similarities, there are minor differences which got magnified with the introduction of an open electoral process in 1991. The great divide between the Ukrainians and ethnic Russians became manifest and could not be bridged by rough parity and a workable power-sharing arrangement.

Added to this ethnic division, the Russian-dominated south with fertile soil and high degree of industrialisation, accounted for 85 per cent of Ukraine's GDP. Slowly the electoral process became a tussle between the ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. The entire country, including President Zelenskyy, spoke Russian but with this ethnic divide the linguistic unity was broken and there was an attempt to impose the Ukrainian language on the entire nation, including those where Russians were the overwhelming majority.