Who Comes Next?

The race to succeed Germany’s Angela Merkel pits caution against boldness

- Alan Crawford

At the edge of the Black Forest in southwest Germany, one of Europe’s great rivers performs a conjuring trick. For roughly half the year, the Danube, here in its infancy and a mere 20 feet or so across, disappears into the porous rock below, traveling through fissures in the limestone to reemerge, some 60 hours later, several miles farther to the south. From there it flows into Lake Constance and enters one of Europe’s other major waterways, the Rhine River. So from this one spot, depending on seasonal conditions, the water will either travel east as the Danube to empty into the Black Sea or flow as the Rhine all the way to the North Sea.

It’s a tempting analogy for Germany’s federal election next month since its course is similarly not yet set but the outcome is sure to ripple throughout Europe and to shores beyond. With Angela Merkel, the longtime chancellor, leaving office, the contest is surprisingly open, and the same corner of the country where the Danube runs underground potentially points the way ahead.

If the previous election in 2017 was all about the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, the story of the campaign for the Sept. 26 vote is the further decline of the governing parties and the surge in support for the Greens. The intervening four years have seen a major shift in attitudes toward climate change and the adoption of green technologies, and polls suggest the party’s moment may have come. The question is whether a traditionally cautious electorate is ready to follow the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg, run by the Greens, in making the leap.